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Early Morning Call - September 11, 2023
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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo told the press that, by year-end, the BOJ could have enough data to determine whether it can end negative rates. This pushed the yen up against all major currencies, particularly against the dollar. Meanwhile, in China, the PBOC said it will take action to correct one-sided moves in the market whenever it is needed and is confident in keeping the yuan stable.

ECB is due to decide on its interest rate decision this Thursday. Derivatives markets are pricing only about a 35% chance of the ECB raising its rates on Thursday. Refinancing rate should therefore remain at 4.25%. No change either for Deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate, forecast respectively at 3.75% and 4.50%

The US dollar starts out the week having hit new six-month highs on Friday. This week there's key inflation data which is before the Fed decision on Wednesday week. US CPI growth is expected to accelerate to 3.6% in August YoY, after a 3.2% rise last month. an increase due to the recent rise in oil prices. Core CPI is forecast at 4.3% YoY, after 4.7% in July.

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